A Alert to Keir Starmer drawn from His Own Past: If You're Not Bold on Britain's EU Exit and the EU, His Party Challengers Will Be.

Back in 2018, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Closed Debates

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.